Taliban's takeover, on the other hand, is a strategic victory for the MJC. In short, if this entity were in charge of Pakistan's foreign policy, it wouldn't have doggedly invested in the Taliban. On the economic front, the prospect of a dependent Taliban government further draining Pakistan's dwindling resources would be another cause of concern. Politically, a powerful Taliban would pose the threat of breathing new life in the Durand Line question. It would fear the spillover of terrorism inside its borders, orchestrated by groups such as the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. The non-MJC Pakistan would be worried about the Taliban's march to power. Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan will be perceived differently by these two Pakistani entities. For the MJC, positioning and defeating the existential enemy - India - is key to ensure its hold over the other Pakistan.

Comprising the military, militant, radical Islamist and political-economic nodes, the MJC pursues domestic and foreign policies to ensure its survival and dominance. The second entity is what my colleague Nitin Pai has named the Pakistani military-jihadi complex (MJC). The first entity is a seemingly normal Pakistani state, presumably concerned first and foremost with the peace and prosperity of its citizens. To understand what the Taliban's victory means for Pakistan - and hence India - it is useful to model Pakistan as two geopolitical entities, not one. Which of these two divergent views is likely to play out? It should let things unfold because Pakistan's victory is a Cadmean one - it comes with massive costs for Pakistan's economy, society, and politics. The recommendation arising from this view is that India should sit back. The assumption being that once the Taliban assumes political control over Afghanistan, it is bound to take some stances that will go against the interests of its sponsor. The counter-view focuses on the inevitability of a split between the Taliban and Pakistan. The recommendation arising from this view is that India needs to coalesce anti-Pakistan factions in Afghanistan. The first view cautions against the increase in terrorism from Pakistan. On this question, two views have come to light over the last few days. Of primary interest is the impact of this development on Pakistan. Taliban's takeover of Kabul is forcing India to reassess its aims and objectives concerning Afghanistan. (This is a draft of my article which appeared first in Times of IndiaвЂ™s Tuesday, August 23rd edition.) Matsyanyaaya #1 : What Does PakistanвЂ™s Cadmean Victory in Afghanistan Mean for IndiaД«ig fish eating small fish = Foreign Policy in action

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